PAPUA – The Governor Election in the 2024 Simultaneous Regional Head Election is a meaningful democratic party in Papua, because there are several provinces that hold Governor Elections in Indonesia’s easternmost province, starting from:
- Main Papua,
- Papua Mountains,
- Central Papua,
- South Papua.
Ahead of the registration day, a number of local figures continued to organize forces to get support from political parties that have seats in the local Provincial DPRD.
Researcher and Political Analyst and Paramadina University Herdi Sahrasad said, the political configuration of each province in Papua has its own peculiarities and for the Papua Mountains Governor Election, Gerindra’s support for Governor John Tabo is considered to strengthen the solidity of the Advanced Indonesia Coalition and has the potential to win, “Golkar DPP Deputy Secretary General Dereck Loupatty’s invitation to Gerindra to join in carrying John Tabo needs to be observed,” Herdi said.
For information, the political map in the Papua Mountains Governor Election is a competition between John Tabo and Befa Yigibalom. John Tabo has confirmed that his deputy is Ones Pahabol and he also claims to have pocketed recommendations from Golkar and the Democrats, while Befa Yigibalom has recommendations from Nasdem, PKS, and Perindo.
According to Herdi, the solid strength of the Advanced Indonesia Coalition affects John Tabo, because he is known as a figure who worked hard to win Prabowo-Gibran in the 2024 Presidential Election and at that time John Tabo was the head of the Prabowo-Gibran winning team in the Papua Mountains.
In political science literature, the terms “quid pro quo” and “Reciprocal Support” are known, both of which describe the concept of reciprocity in politics and that support given at one time deserves to be reciprocated with equal support at another time.
Among all the candidates, only Tabo has historical and emotional closeness to Prabowo as the president-elect, this closeness will facilitate the translation of Prabowo’s National policy in the Mountainous Papua Province, ensuring synergy between the Central and Regional Governments.
Herdi analyzed that it is likely that Befa Yigibalom will change his political strategy and there is potential for him to change his deputy candidate to be more competitive. Changing deputy candidates in practical politics is a commonly used strategy to increase the chances of victory, respond to changing situations, or address emerging problems, the process involves a thorough assessment and internal evaluation.
Befa’s new strategy is very reasonable, considering that Natan Pahabol, who was predicted to be his deputy, is considered not to contribute significantly electorally, because his stature is still below Ones Pahabol and besides, there is a rejection by a number of Gerindra cadres if Natan becomes Befa’s deputy, even though Natan is a Gerindra cadre, but resistance to him within Gerindra is very strong if he is partnered with Befa and even up to the elite level. This was due to the fierce competition in the Presidential Election yesterday where Befa was in the 01 camp against John Tabo and Gerindra cadres in the 02 camp, “Reportedly Befa will partner Usman Wanimbo, a former two-term Tolikara Regent as a Deputy Governor Candidate,” Herdi said.
Usman is the most realistic choice for Befa because his mass base is clearer and more able to compete with political opponents, even though he has to leave Natan Pahabol and meanwhile, for the Central Papua Governor Election Herdi sees a unification of two major forces, Willem Wandik and Natalis Tabuni, who previously advanced independently, are predicted to unite and get support from the majority of political parties.
Willem Wandik previously stated that he had joined Gerindra and had received a membership card, by collaborating with Nasdem’s deputy governor candidate Natalis Tabuni, the couple is predicted to have the support of 10 political parties, namely:
- Gerindra,
- Nasdem,
- PKB,
- Golkar,
- Hanura,
- Democrat,
- PKS,
- Perindo,
- PSI,
- Garuda.
“Most likely, the Willem Wandik-Natalis Tabuni pair will face the governor candidate who will be carried by PDIP,” Herdi said.
Seeing the number of parties supporting Wandik and the amount of mass power he has, Herdi believes that the Governor Election in Central Papua will take place unbalanced with an absolute victory on Wandik’s side.
For the political map of the Governor Election in South Papua, Herdi highlighted the ingenuity of Yusak Yaluwo who collaborated with Gerindra Party organic cadre Otniel Hindom as a deputy governor candidate, the Golkar-Gerindra coalition is predicted to face Apolo Safanpo who is the Acting Governor of South Papua (PDIP and PKS) and Romanus Mbara (Nasdem and PAN), “Of the three candidate pairs, the strongest is still Yusak Yaluwo-Otniel Hindom,” he said.
For Papua Induk, there are four axes that will compete for the governor’s seat, Gerindra Party is predicted to carry its own cadre Yan Permenas Mandenas who is now a member of the Indonesian Parliament paired with Yunus Wonda from the Democrats, “PAN and PSI are likely to join the Yan Mandenas-Yunus Wonda pair,” he said.
The pair will be up against three candidates from other axes namely:
- Paulus Waterpauw,
- Mathius Fakhiri,
- Benhur Tomi Mano.
According to Herdi, overall, the elected governors will have strong political legitimacy because they are directly elected by the people and will provide a new style of leadership for Papua.